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NEXSTAR MEDIA GROUP, INC. (NXST)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 net revenue was $1.20B, down 12.3% year over year on sharply lower political advertising; diluted EPS was $2.14 and adjusted EBITDA was $358M as margins compressed on mix and equity income headwinds .
  • Versus S&P Global consensus, NXST slightly missed revenue (consensus $1.20B vs actual $1.198B*) and posted a material EPS miss on S&P’s “Primary EPS” basis (consensus $2.43 vs actual $1.05*), while company-reported diluted EPS was $2.14; the delta reflects differing EPS definitions and non-GAAP treatment (see Estimates Context) .
  • Management emphasized stability in distribution and non-political advertising; noted a one-time distribution revenue deduction from resolving a disputed customer claim and higher corporate costs tied to the pending TEGNA deal; CW losses improved 24% YoY and NewsNation remained the fastest-growing cable network .
  • Forward items include late-year distribution renewals, FCC/DOJ review of the TEGNA acquisition (target close 2H 2026), and political tailwinds in 2026; CFO guided Q4 interest expense ~$88M, cash taxes ~$45M, capex ~$32M, with programming cash costs > amortization by ~$30M .
  • Capital allocation remains disciplined: NXST repaid $25M of debt and paid $56M in dividends in Q3; the Board subsequently declared a $1.86/share dividend on Oct 29 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • “Core business is performing well, with stable year-over-year distribution and non-political advertising revenue,” aided by strong expense management; CW posted its sixth consecutive quarter of primetime ratings growth and reduced losses by 24% YoY; NewsNation was again the fastest-growing cable network .
    • Distribution revenue (ex one-time dispute resolution) would have been slightly up; non-political advertising was effectively flat against a tough Olympics comp and absent political crowd-out versus last year .
    • Leverage remains conservative with first lien net leverage at 1.73x and total net leverage at 3.09x, comfortably below covenant; interest expense fell YoY on lower SOFR and reduced debt balances .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Political advertising fell ~$145M YoY to $10M, driving a 23.5% decline in total advertising revenue and a 12.3% decline in net revenue; adjusted EBITDA margin compressed 740 bps YoY to 29.9% .
    • Distribution revenue declined 1.4% YoY, reflecting MVPD attrition and the non-recurring resolution of a disputed customer claim; corporate expenses rose $15M YoY on one-time items tied to the dispute resolution and TEGNA transaction costs .
    • Income from equity method investments (TV Food Network) declined $12M YoY in Q3, contributing to lower net income and adjusted EBITDA; operating cash flow fell sharply YoY on timing of receipts/payments .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Net Revenue ($USD Billions)$1.234 $1.229 $1.198
Diluted EPS ($USD)$3.37 $3.06 $2.14
Net Income ($USD Millions)$97 $91 $65
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$381 $389 $358
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)30.9% 31.7% 29.9%
Net Income Margin (%)7.9% 7.4% 5.4%
Revenue Breakdown ($USD Millions)Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Distribution$762 $733 $709
Advertising (Total)$460 $475 $476
Political Advertising (Included in Ads)$6 $9 ~$10
Other$12 $21 $13
KPIsQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Net Cash from Operating Activities ($USD Millions)$337 $247 $117
Adjusted Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)$348 $101 $166
First Lien Net Leverage (x)1.67x 1.81x 1.73x
Total Net Leverage (x)2.93x 3.19x 3.09x
Unrestricted Cash ($USD Millions)$253 $234 $236
Total Debt ($USD Millions)$6,495 $6,383 $6,359

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Non-political advertising YoYQ4 2025Not previously quantified for Q4; Q3 guide was low-single-digit decline YoY Very low single-digit decline YoY Maintained cautious tone
Interest expense ($USD Millions)Q4 2025Q3 guide: ~$93M ~$88M Lower
Cash taxes ($USD Millions)Q4 2025Q3 guide: $35–$40M ~$45M Higher
Capex ($USD Millions)Q4 2025Q3 guide: $25–$30M ~$32M Higher
Capitalized software ($USD Millions)Q4 2025Not guided~$6M New
Programming cash vs amortization ($USD Millions)Q4 2025Q3: cash > amortization by ~$25M Cash > amortization by ~$30M Higher prepayments/deferred payments
Food Network cash distributions ($USD Millions)Q4 2025Low-to-mid single digits in Q3 Low single-digit Slightly lower
Retrans/distribution revenue trajectoryFY 2025“Flat” for full-year reiterated trend Reaffirmed flattish; without dispute item Q3 distribution would be up Maintained
Dividend per shareOngoing$1.86 declared Q1 increase $1.86 declared for Nov 26, 2025 payment Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 2025)Previous Mentions (Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Regulatory/Ownership Deregulation & FCC/DOJTop strategic priority; industry momentum toward NPRM; Chevron viewed as supportive FCC refreshed ownership cap record; optimism; DOJ market-definition evolution noted TEGNA definitive agreement; DOJ second request; FCC apps ready; close targeted 2H26 Intensifying; deal moving through reviews
Distribution renewals & MVPD/vMVPD dynamics60% subs up for renewal in 2025; cautious but improving trends MVPD trends showing marginal improvement; vMVPD economics (net via networks) clarified One-time disputed claim hit Q3 distribution; renewals reset at year-end Stable-to-slightly improving; resets likely additive in 2026
The CW sports strategy & profitabilitySports expanded; Q1 amortization up; breakeven expected 2026 Five quarters of growth; losses improved by ~$21M YoY; breakeven in 2026 Sixth consecutive ratings growth quarter; losses reduced 24% YoY (~$5M); portfolio expanded (Pac-12, PBR, NASCAR) Positive execution; narrowing losses
NewsNation tractionGrowing audience; added to White House pool Fastest-growing basic cable network; YoY growth metrics Fastest-growing cable network in Q3; frequent surpasses of MSNBC/CNN Strengthening
Macroeconomy/Tariffs & Ad mixService ad resilience vs goods; modest exposure to goods Ad outlook stable; ~15% revenue tied to goods possibly tariff-impacted Non-political ads flat; Q4 guide very low-single-digit decline; pharma <3% of non-political Stable with category mix awareness
ATSC 3.0 & Spectrum monetizationPursuing firm transition; largest UHF holder; non-video monetization potential Continued focus; process efficiency in ad buying discussed Post-TEGNA focus on ATSC 3.0 non-video uses; streamline linear ad buying Strategic focus continuing

Management Commentary

  • “In the third quarter, we took a major step forward… entered into a definitive agreement to acquire TEGNA Inc. for $6.2 billion… core business is performing well… NewsNation fastest growing… The CW generated its sixth consecutive quarter of primetime ratings growth and reduced losses by 24% YoY.” — Perry Sook, CEO .
  • “Third quarter distribution revenue… down 1.4%… reflects MVPD attrition and a non-recurring disputed customer claim; without that, distribution would have been slightly up. Non-political advertising was essentially flat… strong national and digital growth offset soft local.” — Mike Biard, COO .
  • “Third quarter adjusted EBITDA was $358M… the increase in corporate expense was primarily due to one-time expenses tied to the dispute resolution and the proposed TEGNA acquisition… Interest expense declined on lower SOFR and debt balances.” — Lee Ann Gliha, CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • TEGNA closing and regulatory path: DOJ second request received; FCC filings ready upon government reopening; target close 2H 2026; management confident given deregulatory momentum and public interest case .
  • Distribution anomaly: One-time disputed customer claim reduced Q3 distribution; will not linger into Q4 .
  • Political/2026 outlook: Broadcast remains dominant; NXST geography supports “prodigious” 2026 political revenue; CTV fastest-growing complement .
  • CW economics: Losses down 24% YoY in Q3; on track for ~25% annual improvement in 2025 and breakeven in 2026 .
  • Q4 operational guardrails: CFO guided interest expense ~$88M; cash taxes ~$45M; capex ~$32M; programming cash > amortization by ~$30M; Food Network distributions low-single-digit millions .

Estimates Context

MetricQ3 2025 Consensus EstimateQ3 2025 Actual Reported
Revenue ($USD)$1,199,976,250*$1,198,000,000
Primary EPS (S&P Global) ($USD)2.434*1.047*
  • Values retrieved from S&P Global.* NXST’s company-reported diluted EPS was $2.14, which differs from S&P’s “Primary EPS” actual; the gap reflects differing EPS definitions and treatment of items in S&P’s methodology versus company GAAP reporting .
  • Takeaway: Revenue essentially in line; EPS miss on S&P “Primary” basis driven by lower political advertising, one-time corporate costs (TEGNA/dispute resolution), and weaker TVFN equity income .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Mix and cycle dynamics: YoY declines were largely cyclical (political down ~$145M) and temporary (distribution dispute item), with core distribution and non-political advertising stable; expect distribution resets to benefit 2026 .
  • Expense discipline and leverage: Operating expenses down YoY; leverage conservative at 1.73x first lien / 3.09x total; interest expense trending lower with rates/debt reduction .
  • CW/NewsNation execution: CW losses narrowed 24% YoY with sports-anchored slate; NewsNation continues outsized audience growth—both support multi-year profitability and monetization .
  • TEGNA transaction: Management targets >40% accretion to standalone adjusted FCF with ~$300M synergies as pro forma scale expands; regulatory process underway (DOJ/FCC) with close aimed for 2H 2026 .
  • Q4 setup: Expect very low-single-digit decline in non-political ads; cash taxes/interest/CapEx guide provides visibility into near-term cash flow cadence .
  • Capital returns: Dividend maintained at $1.86 per share with near-term share repurchases paused to conserve cash for TEGNA, while debt paydown continues .
  • Trading implications: Watch regulatory milestones (FCC filings, DOJ review), late-2025 distribution renewals, and any updates on CW monetization; 2026 political cycle should be a material tailwind with possible estimate revisions upward for ad revenue .
All company data points and quotes cited above are sourced from Nexstar’s Q3 2025 8-K earnings release and related press materials and transcripts: **[1142417_0001193125-25-268039_nxst-ex99_1.htm:1]** **[1142417_0001193125-25-268039_nxst-ex99_1.htm:2]** **[1142417_0001193125-25-268039_nxst-ex99_1.htm:3]** **[1142417_0001193125-25-268039_nxst-ex99_1.htm:4]** **[1142417_0001193125-25-268039_nxst-ex99_1.htm:6]** **[1142417_0001193125-25-268039_nxst-ex99_1.htm:7]** **[1142417_0001193125-25-268039_nxst-ex99_1.htm:10]**, Q3 call transcripts **[0001142417_2270889_1]** **[0001142417_2270889_2]** **[0001142417_2270889_3]** **[0001142417_2270889_4]** **[0001142417_2270889_5]** **[0001142417_2270889_6]** **[0001142417_2270889_7]** **[0001142417_2270889_8]** **[0001142417_2270889_10]** **[0001142417_2270889_13]**, and prior quarter filings/calls **[1142417_0001142417-25-000004_nxst-ex99_1.htm:4]** **[1142417_0001142417-25-000004_nxst-ex99_1.htm:7]** **[1142417_0001142417-25-000004_nxst-ex99_1.htm:8]** **[1142417_0001142417-25-000004_nxst-ex99_1.htm:11]** **[1142417_0001142417-25-000004_nxst-ex99_1.htm:12]** **[1142417_0001142417-25-000004_nxst-ex99_1.htm:13]** **[1142417_2063132_4]** **[1142417_2063132_5]** **[1142417_2063132_7]**. Dividend press release **[1142417_1eea24378da3448eb93a733ee4ecc5c5_0]**.